UK Election Polls Narrowing, Predict the Result
Latest polls show a small but noticeable narrowing in the polls
Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election has been carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. The latest polls are showing a small but noticeable narrowing in the gap between the two main parties, with the Labour Party now leading the Conservative Party by a margin of just 3%. This is a significant change from the polls conducted in the spring, which showed the Labour Party leading by a margin of 10%. The narrowing of the polls is likely due to a number of factors, including the recent economic downturn and the ongoing cost of living crisis. The Conservative Party has also been damaged by a number of scandals, including the "Partygate" scandal, which has seen the Prime Minister fined by the police for attending parties during lockdown.
Predict the UK general election result
You can use our model to estimate the result in every constituency using the latest polls or what you think. The model takes into account a number of factors, including the latest polling data, the historical performance of the parties in each constituency, and the demographic makeup of the constituency. The model can be used to predict the outcome of the election in each constituency, as well as the overall result. The model is based on the latest polling data from the following organisations:
- YouGov
- Ipsos MORI
- Survation
- Opinium
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